D:/bowl · 2026 season engine · model backtests · bowl assignments ·
Status
2026 Projected Final Ranking — Top 25
Final Elo + expected wins from a 10,000-game Monte Carlo of the remaining schedule. champ% = probability of winning the conference. Only week 1 played, so form features are neutral.
Projected 2026 Conference Champions
CFP Field — 2026 Projection vs 2025 Actual
2026 PROJECTION (5 champs + 7 at-large)
2025 ACTUAL (final committee top 12)
Model Backtest — Winner Accuracy by Season
Regular-season FBS-vs-FBS, time-series holdout. Overall: logit 69.4% vs Elo-only 68.2%; Brier 0.185 vs 0.190.
Time Machine — Season Replay by Week (2021-2025)
Rewind to any week of a past season: the projection as it stood then (Elo + expected final wins over the remaining schedule), versus how the season actually finished. This is the honest view of how predictions evolve.
PROJECTED TOP 10 AT THAT MOMENT (expected final wins)
HOW PROJECTIONS SHARPEN (avg 2021-2025)
MAE = avg error in expected final wins per team (lower = sharper). Hit rate = % of projected top 10 that finished in the actual top 10.
Week 2–4 Toughest Calls (toss-ups)
2026-27 Projected Bowl Assignments
52 of 70 non-CFP slots filled. Cutoff = 5.5 expected wins (real rule is 6 wins; borderline teams left open). Matchup side shows which conference tie-in filled.